The "trade-in" policy continues to gain momentum, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuating at highs after a slight opening higher in the night session [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on May 20, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained high-level fluctuations, closing at 264,390 yuan/mt, up 0.15% from the previous trading day, with total open interest reaching 25,600 lots.

Macro: (1) Xiaomi's strategic new product launch is scheduled for May 22, where it will unveil the "Xuanjie O1," which adopts the second-generation 3nm process technology. (Bullish ★) (2) Jensen Huang: NVIDIA will launch its next-generation GB300 AI system in Q3. It will build an AI supercomputer in Taiwan, China, and NVIDIA's DGX Spark has already entered full production. (Bullish ★) (3) With the continuous implementation of the "trade-in" policy, coupled with automakers' new product launches and increased self-funded sales promotions, the consumer vitality in the automotive market has significantly improved. (Bullish ★) (4) Fed-Bostic: The number of interest rate cuts this year depends on how things unfold, and the details of tariffs will be crucial. He leans towards only one interest rate cut this year, as understanding tariffs takes time. Williams: Policy is somewhat restrictive and in good shape. Recent economic data has been very good, and the key word for the economy is uncertainty. Vice Chair Jefferson: The Fed's policy is in a very good state. We are facing risks on both sides of our dual mandate.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Alphamin Resources Corp.'s Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 mt of metal tin from April 15 to May 11, 2025, achieving the expected processing recovery rate. Tin production commenced by processing raw ore stockpiles from the mine, initially from the Mpama North plant, followed by the restart of the Mpama South plant on April 19, 2025. Underground ore blasting and transportation began in the last week of April 2025, while the mine development rate also increased. Since the restart of the mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates for export was shipped by truck on May 9, 2025. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations, and the demand for low-priced restocking was somewhat released, but high-priced transactions remained sluggish. (Bearish ★)

Spot Market: The transaction prices of spot tin ingots fluctuated around 264,500-266,500 yuan/mt. Smelters showed strong willingness to hold prices, but liquidity was insufficient. Downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement, and traders faced significant selling pressure.